Holistic and Multiple Risk Assessment
The aim of work package 3 is to broaden the focus of traditional risk assessment practice by taking the holistic perspective into the analysis and searching for interactions and interrelatedness between different processes and activities. It also aims to take into consideration aspects such as social justice and social contract (see for example Vojinovic and Abbott, 2012 and Pelling, 2011). It will build upon the increased understanding of vulnerability of a variety of community groups and especially those who live at risk of various hazards, exacerbation of flood hazards due to traffic jams, as well as hazards due to combined effects of flooding and other types of hazards that are not directly linked to flooding but realistically may coincide with (or be triggered by) extreme hydro-meteorological events and their cascading effects.
- Develop a framework and ontology for holistic and multiple risk assessment (strategic and operational);
- Collect and compile inputs for strategic and operational risk assessment, estimation of damages and develop damage assessment models;
- Extend existing health impact assessment methodologies to include modelling risk of primary infection during a flooding event;
- Develop concepts and tools for holistic risk assessment including risk cascading effects;
- Develop concepts and tools for quantification of multi-hazards;
- Apply concepts and tools in the case study work.
- Task 3.1 Development of a RAFT – a Risk Assessment Framework and onTology
- Task 3.2 Development of future land use change and urbanisation scenarios
- Task 3.3 Development of a framework for impact assessment due to multiple causes considering both direct and indirect and tangible and intangible impacts/damages
- Task 3.4 Assessment of economic impacts of extreme events taking into account different levels of vulnerability and root causes that might increase loss and damage patterns
- Task 3.5 Public health impact assessment
- Task 3.6 Development of models and visualisation tools to support risk assessment
- Task 3.7 Risk Assessment due to combined extreme events for the case studies
- D 3.1 A report describing a holistic and multiple risk assessment framework (at strategic and operation levels)
- D 3.2 An improved model for flood impact assessment on public health
- D 3.3 A toolkit for holistic/multiple risk and impact/damage assessment at strategic and operational levels
- D 3.4 Report on assessed risk and impacts in all EU case study areas including inputs into the platform developed in WP6.1
- Vojinovic Z, Y Abebe, A Sanchez, N Medina, I Nikolic, N Manojlovic, C Makropoulos, M Pelling, M Abbott, 2014: “Holistic Flood Risk Assessment in Coastal Areas – The PEARL Approach“. Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Hydroinformatics, 17-21 August, 2014, New York.
- Vojinovic Z, D Golub, S Weesakul, W Keerakamolchai, S Hirunsalee, V Meesuk, A Sanchez, S Kumara, N Manojlovic, M Abbott, 2014: “Merging Quantitative and Qualitative Analyses for Flood Risk Assessment at Heritage Sites, the case of Ayutthaya, Thailand“. Proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Hydroinformatics, 17-21 August, 2014, New York.